RSO vs OSA
Real Sociedad (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RSO win 52.6% fair 1.90
Draw 21.9% fair 4.57
OSA win 25.5% fair 3.92
Expected Goals
RSO
2.00
—
1.31
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.2% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.8% | fair 2.80 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-1 OSA | 9.6% | |
| RSO 2-1 OSA | 9.6% | |
| RSO 1-0 OSA | 7.3% | |
| RSO 2-0 OSA | 7.3% | |
| RSO 3-1 OSA | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).