VIL vs SEV
Villarreal (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VIL win 56.1% fair 1.78
Draw 21.4% fair 4.67
SEV win 22.5% fair 4.44
Expected Goals
VIL
2.05
—
1.19
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.0% | fair 2.70 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 2-1 SEV | 9.8% | |
| VIL 1-1 SEV | 9.5% | |
| VIL 2-0 SEV | 8.2% | |
| VIL 1-0 SEV | 8.0% | |
| VIL 3-1 SEV | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).