CEL vs DEP
Celta Vigo (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CEL win 52.4% fair 1.91
Draw 24.8% fair 4.04
DEP win 22.9% fair 4.37
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 53.4% / 24.9% / 21.7%.
Expected Goals
CEL
1.61
—
0.93
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-0 DEP | 12.7% | |
| CEL 1-1 DEP | 11.8% | |
| CEL 2-0 DEP | 10.2% | |
| CEL 2-1 DEP | 9.5% | |
| CEL 0-0 DEP | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).