CEL vs ATM
Celta Vigo (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CEL win 32.6% fair 3.07
Draw 26.6% fair 3.76
ATM win 40.8% fair 2.45
Expected Goals
CEL
1.13
—
1.36
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | fair 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 ATM | 12.7% | |
| CEL 0-1 ATM | 11.2% | |
| CEL 1-0 ATM | 9.4% | |
| CEL 1-2 ATM | 8.7% | |
| CEL 0-0 ATM | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).