BET vs RAC
Real Betis (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BET win 65.0% fair 1.54
Draw 18.3% fair 5.47
RAC win 16.7% fair 5.99
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 68.0% / 17.4% / 14.6%.
Expected Goals
BET
2.47
—
1.07
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.7% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.3% | fair 3.19 |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| BET 2-1 RAC | 9.5% | |
| BET 2-0 RAC | 8.8% | |
| BET 3-1 RAC | 7.8% | |
| BET 1-1 RAC | 7.7% | |
| BET 3-0 RAC | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BET goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).