ELC vs SEV
Elche (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELC win 44.8% fair 2.23
Draw 23.7% fair 4.21
SEV win 31.4% fair 3.18
Expected Goals
ELC
1.69
—
1.38
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 SEV | 10.8% | |
| ELC 2-1 SEV | 9.1% | |
| ELC 1-0 SEV | 7.8% | |
| ELC 1-2 SEV | 7.5% | |
| ELC 2-0 SEV | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).