VIL vs RAY
Villarreal (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VIL win 57.6% fair 1.74
Draw 21.7% fair 4.61
RAY win 20.7% fair 4.84
Expected Goals
VIL
1.98
—
1.06
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.5% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.5% | fair 2.41 |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 1-1 RAY | 10.0% | |
| VIL 2-1 RAY | 9.9% | |
| VIL 1-0 RAY | 9.5% | |
| VIL 2-0 RAY | 9.4% | |
| VIL 3-1 RAY | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).