DEP vs ATH
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
DEP win 37.3% fair 2.68
Draw 26.0% fair 3.84
ATH win 36.6% fair 2.73
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.8% / 26.4% / 37.8%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.28
—
1.32
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 ATH | 12.6% | |
| DEP 0-1 ATH | 9.8% | |
| DEP 1-0 ATH | 9.5% | |
| DEP 1-2 ATH | 8.3% | |
| DEP 2-1 ATH | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).