ESP vs CEL
Espanyol (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ESP win 34.8% fair 2.87
Draw 27.4% fair 3.65
CEL win 37.8% fair 2.64
Expected Goals
ESP
1.14
—
1.24
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 CEL | 13.1% | |
| ESP 0-1 CEL | 11.5% | |
| ESP 1-0 CEL | 10.5% | |
| ESP 0-0 CEL | 9.2% | |
| ESP 1-2 CEL | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).