MLG vs FCB
Málaga (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MLG win 11.1% fair 9.03
Draw 11.8% fair 8.50
FCB win 77.2% fair 1.30
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 6.0% / 10.0% / 84.0%.
Expected Goals
MLG
0.88
—
3.38
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.7% | fair 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20.3% | fair 4.93 |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 0-3 FCB | 9.1% | |
| MLG 0-2 FCB | 8.1% | |
| MLG 1-3 FCB | 8.0% | |
| MLG 0-4 FCB | 7.7% | |
| MLG 1-2 FCB | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 10.5 |
| 1 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 9.2 |
| 2 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).