RAY vs LEV
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Levante · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAY win 43.9% fair 2.28
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
LEV win 31.8% fair 3.14
Expected Goals
RAY
1.60
—
1.34
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 LEV | 11.3% | |
| RAY 2-1 LEV | 9.1% | |
| RAY 1-0 LEV | 8.5% | |
| RAY 1-2 LEV | 7.6% | |
| RAY 0-1 LEV | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).