RAC vs DEP
Racing Santander (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 69% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAC win 40.4% fair 2.47
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
DEP win 35.7% fair 2.80
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.2% / 23.9% / 36.9%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.57
—
1.52
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.3% | fair 2.48 |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-1 DEP | 10.9% | |
| RAC 2-1 DEP | 8.5% | |
| RAC 1-2 DEP | 8.2% | |
| RAC 1-0 DEP | 7.2% | |
| RAC 0-1 DEP | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).