ATH vs RMA
Athletic Club (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATH win 22.3% fair 4.49
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
RMA win 55.7% fair 1.80
Expected Goals
ATH
1.04
—
1.93
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.0% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 RMA | 10.3% | |
| ATH 1-2 RMA | 9.9% | |
| ATH 0-1 RMA | 9.9% | |
| ATH 0-2 RMA | 9.6% | |
| ATH 1-3 RMA | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).