OSA vs ELC
Osasuna (home) vs Elche · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OSA win 38.5% fair 2.60
Draw 25.1% fair 3.99
ELC win 36.4% fair 2.74
Expected Goals
OSA
1.41
—
1.40
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.6% | fair 2.15 |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 ELC | 11.9% | |
| OSA 1-0 ELC | 8.5% | |
| OSA 0-1 ELC | 8.4% | |
| OSA 2-1 ELC | 8.4% | |
| OSA 1-2 ELC | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).