SEV vs MLG
Sevilla (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SEV win 56.9% fair 1.76
Draw 22.0% fair 4.56
MLG win 21.2% fair 4.72
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 58.8% / 21.6% / 19.6%.
Expected Goals
SEV
1.97
—
1.04
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.1% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-1 MLG | 10.1% | |
| SEV 2-1 MLG | 9.9% | |
| SEV 1-0 MLG | 9.7% | |
| SEV 2-0 MLG | 9.5% | |
| SEV 3-1 MLG | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).