CEL vs VIL
Celta Vigo (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CEL win 37.7% fair 2.66
Draw 25.8% fair 3.88
VIL win 36.5% fair 2.74
Expected Goals
CEL
1.33
—
1.34
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.1% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 VIL | 12.3% | |
| CEL 0-1 VIL | 9.3% | |
| CEL 1-0 VIL | 9.2% | |
| CEL 1-2 VIL | 8.3% | |
| CEL 2-1 VIL | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).