CEL vs VIL
Celta Vigo (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
CEL win 37.2% fair 2.69
Draw 23.6% fair 4.24
VIL win 39.2% fair 2.55
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.9% / 23.5% / 40.6%.
Expected Goals
CEL
1.53
—
1.64
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.7% | fair 2.59 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 VIL | 10.6% | |
| CEL 1-2 VIL | 8.6% | |
| CEL 2-1 VIL | 8.1% | |
| CEL 0-1 VIL | 6.9% | |
| CEL 2-2 VIL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).