BET vs RAY
Real Betis (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
BET win 49.9% fair 2.00
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
RAY win 25.4% fair 3.94
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.5% / 24.8% / 24.7%.
Expected Goals
BET
1.62
—
1.06
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| BET 1-1 RAY | 11.8% | |
| BET 1-0 RAY | 11.2% | |
| BET 2-1 RAY | 9.5% | |
| BET 2-0 RAY | 9.0% | |
| BET 0-1 RAY | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BET goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).