MLG vs ATH
Málaga (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
MLG win 37.5% fair 2.67
Draw 24.8% fair 4.04
ATH win 37.7% fair 2.65
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.2% / 25.0% / 39.8%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.37
—
1.48
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 ATH | 11.7% | |
| MLG 1-2 ATH | 8.7% | |
| MLG 0-1 ATH | 8.5% | |
| MLG 2-1 ATH | 8.1% | |
| MLG 1-0 ATH | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).