MLG vs ATH
Málaga (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MLG win 31.2% fair 3.21
Draw 25.5% fair 3.92
ATH win 43.3% fair 2.31
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.6% / 25.8% / 45.7%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.12
—
1.49
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.4% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 ATH | 12.3% | |
| MLG 0-1 ATH | 10.9% | |
| MLG 1-2 ATH | 9.1% | |
| MLG 1-0 ATH | 8.2% | |
| MLG 0-2 ATH | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).