ELC vs ATM
Elche (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
ELC win 32.2% fair 3.11
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
ATM win 43.7% fair 2.29
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 30.2% / 24.1% / 45.7%.
Expected Goals
ELC
1.30
—
1.65
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.5% | fair 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 ATM | 11.2% | |
| ELC 1-2 ATM | 9.3% | |
| ELC 0-1 ATM | 8.7% | |
| ELC 2-1 ATM | 7.3% | |
| ELC 0-2 ATM | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).