ELC vs ATM
Elche (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELC win 29.1% fair 3.43
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
ATM win 46.9% fair 2.13
Expected Goals
ELC
1.21
—
1.70
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.4% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 ATM | 11.2% | |
| ELC 1-2 ATM | 9.5% | |
| ELC 0-1 ATM | 9.2% | |
| ELC 0-2 ATM | 7.8% | |
| ELC 2-1 ATM | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).