ESP vs GET
Espanyol (home) vs Getafe · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ESP win 42.8% fair 2.34
Draw 27.9% fair 3.59
GET win 29.4% fair 3.40
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.3% / 28.5% / 29.3%.
Expected Goals
ESP
1.25
—
0.99
GET
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.9% | fair 2.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | fair 2.22 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-0 GET | 13.3% | |
| ESP 1-1 GET | 13.2% | |
| ESP 0-0 GET | 10.6% | |
| ESP 0-1 GET | 10.5% | |
| ESP 2-0 GET | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: GET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).