LEV vs RAC
Levante (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEV win 53.6% fair 1.86
Draw 21.3% fair 4.71
RAC win 25.1% fair 3.98
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.9% / 20.8% / 24.3%.
Expected Goals
LEV
2.13
—
1.36
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.8% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.2% | fair 3.10 |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 2-1 RAC | 9.4% | |
| LEV 1-1 RAC | 8.8% | |
| LEV 2-0 RAC | 6.9% | |
| LEV 3-1 RAC | 6.7% | |
| LEV 1-0 RAC | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).