LEV vs RAC
Levante (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
LEV win 47.2% fair 2.12
Draw 23.6% fair 4.25
RAC win 29.2% fair 3.42
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.5% / 23.4% / 29.0%.
Expected Goals
LEV
1.74
—
1.32
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.0% | fair 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 1-1 RAC | 10.8% | |
| LEV 2-1 RAC | 9.4% | |
| LEV 1-0 RAC | 8.2% | |
| LEV 2-0 RAC | 7.1% | |
| LEV 1-2 RAC | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).