DEP vs FCB
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
DEP win 13.9% fair 7.20
Draw 14.5% fair 6.90
FCB win 71.6% fair 1.40
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 9.4% / 13.2% / 77.4%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.00
—
2.99
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.0% | fair 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.0% | fair 4.17 |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 0-2 FCB | 8.3% | |
| DEP 1-2 FCB | 8.3% | |
| DEP 0-3 FCB | 8.3% | |
| DEP 1-3 FCB | 8.2% | |
| DEP 0-4 FCB | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 6.7 |
| 1 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 6.7 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).