DEP vs FCB
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 72%
Match Outcome
DEP win 17.8% fair 5.63
Draw 17.6% fair 5.69
FCB win 64.7% fair 1.55
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 12.2% / 16.3% / 71.5%.
Expected Goals
DEP
0.96
—
2.54
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.0% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.0% | fair 3.13 |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 0-2 FCB | 9.7% | |
| DEP 1-2 FCB | 9.4% | |
| DEP 0-3 FCB | 8.2% | |
| DEP 1-3 FCB | 7.9% | |
| DEP 0-1 FCB | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 4.4 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 4.2 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).