VAL vs OSA
Valencia (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
VAL win 42.9% fair 2.33
Draw 25.4% fair 3.93
OSA win 31.7% fair 3.15
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.3% / 25.7% / 32.0%.
Expected Goals
VAL
1.46
—
1.23
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 OSA | 12.2% | |
| VAL 1-0 OSA | 9.9% | |
| VAL 2-1 OSA | 8.9% | |
| VAL 0-1 OSA | 8.4% | |
| VAL 1-2 OSA | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).