VAL vs OSA
Valencia (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VAL win 42.5% fair 2.35
Draw 26.0% fair 3.84
OSA win 31.5% fair 3.17
Expected Goals
VAL
1.41
—
1.18
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 OSA | 12.5% | |
| VAL 1-0 OSA | 10.5% | |
| VAL 0-1 OSA | 8.9% | |
| VAL 2-1 OSA | 8.8% | |
| VAL 0-0 OSA | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).