RMA vs ALA
Real Madrid (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
RMA win 64.6% fair 1.55
Draw 19.2% fair 5.21
ALA win 16.2% fair 6.17
Expected Goals
RMA
2.27
—
0.95
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.4% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.6% | fair 2.66 |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-0 ALA | 10.3% | |
| RMA 2-1 ALA | 9.8% | |
| RMA 1-0 ALA | 9.1% | |
| RMA 1-1 ALA | 8.6% | |
| RMA 3-0 ALA | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).