RMA vs ALA
Real Madrid (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RMA win 69.2% fair 1.44
Draw 17.6% fair 5.68
ALA win 13.2% fair 7.58
Expected Goals
RMA
2.39
—
0.85
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.2% | fair 2.69 |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-0 ALA | 11.2% | |
| RMA 2-1 ALA | 9.5% | |
| RMA 1-0 ALA | 9.4% | |
| RMA 3-0 ALA | 8.9% | |
| RMA 1-1 ALA | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).