FCB vs VIL
Barcelona (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 85%
Match Outcome
FCB win 63.1% fair 1.58
Draw 18.6% fair 5.37
VIL win 18.3% fair 5.47
Expected Goals
FCB
2.45
—
1.20
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.5% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.5% | fair 3.39 |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 2-1 VIL | 9.4% | |
| FCB 2-0 VIL | 7.8% | |
| FCB 1-1 VIL | 7.7% | |
| FCB 3-1 VIL | 7.6% | |
| FCB 1-0 VIL | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).