FCB vs VIL
Barcelona (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 87% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCB win 71.0% fair 1.41
Draw 15.2% fair 6.57
VIL win 13.8% fair 7.26
Expected Goals
FCB
2.96
—
1.20
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 78.4% | fair 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 21.6% | fair 4.63 |
| Both teams to score | 66.2% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 2-1 VIL | 8.2% | |
| FCB 3-1 VIL | 8.1% | |
| FCB 2-0 VIL | 6.9% | |
| FCB 3-0 VIL | 6.8% | |
| FCB 4-1 VIL | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).