SEV vs BET
Sevilla (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
SEV win 35.4% fair 2.83
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
BET win 40.2% fair 2.49
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 33.9% / 24.5% / 41.6%.
Expected Goals
SEV
1.38
—
1.56
BET
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-1 BET | 11.4% | |
| SEV 1-2 BET | 8.9% | |
| SEV 0-1 BET | 8.2% | |
| SEV 2-1 BET | 7.9% | |
| SEV 1-0 BET | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).