ALA vs DEP
Alavés (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ALA win 47.7% fair 2.10
Draw 25.1% fair 3.99
DEP win 27.2% fair 3.67
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.0% / 25.3% / 26.8%.
Expected Goals
ALA
1.56
—
1.10
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 DEP | 12.0% | |
| ALA 1-0 DEP | 11.0% | |
| ALA 2-1 DEP | 9.4% | |
| ALA 2-0 DEP | 8.5% | |
| ALA 0-1 DEP | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).