ALA vs DEP
Alavés (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
ALA win 52.0% fair 1.92
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
DEP win 24.2% fair 4.13
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 53.4% / 23.7% / 22.8%.
Expected Goals
ALA
1.73
—
1.05
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.5% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 DEP | 11.3% | |
| ALA 1-0 DEP | 10.8% | |
| ALA 2-1 DEP | 9.8% | |
| ALA 2-0 DEP | 9.3% | |
| ALA 0-1 DEP | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).