CEL vs LEV
Celta Vigo (home) vs Levante · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
CEL win 52.0% fair 1.92
Draw 23.5% fair 4.25
LEV win 24.5% fair 4.08
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 52.9% / 23.4% / 23.7%.
Expected Goals
CEL
1.77
—
1.10
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 LEV | 11.1% | |
| CEL 1-0 LEV | 10.0% | |
| CEL 2-1 LEV | 9.8% | |
| CEL 2-0 LEV | 8.8% | |
| CEL 0-1 LEV | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).