CEL vs LEV
Celta Vigo (home) vs Levante · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CEL win 50.7% fair 1.97
Draw 24.2% fair 4.14
LEV win 25.1% fair 3.98
Expected Goals
CEL
1.68
—
1.09
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.7% | fair 2.09 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 LEV | 11.5% | |
| CEL 1-0 LEV | 10.6% | |
| CEL 2-1 LEV | 9.6% | |
| CEL 2-0 LEV | 8.9% | |
| CEL 0-1 LEV | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).