RAY vs CEL
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAY win 35.3% fair 2.83
Draw 27.0% fair 3.70
CEL win 37.7% fair 2.65
Expected Goals
RAY
1.17
—
1.27
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | fair 2.02 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 CEL | 13.0% | |
| RAY 0-1 CEL | 11.0% | |
| RAY 1-0 CEL | 10.2% | |
| RAY 0-0 CEL | 8.7% | |
| RAY 1-2 CEL | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).