RAY vs CEL
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
RAY win 39.0% fair 2.57
Draw 26.9% fair 3.72
CEL win 34.2% fair 2.93
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.0% / 27.3% / 34.8%.
Expected Goals
RAY
1.26
—
1.20
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | fair 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 CEL | 12.9% | |
| RAY 1-0 CEL | 10.8% | |
| RAY 0-1 CEL | 10.2% | |
| RAY 0-0 CEL | 8.6% | |
| RAY 2-1 CEL | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).