VIL vs ESP
Villarreal (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
VIL win 57.2% fair 1.75
Draw 21.4% fair 4.66
ESP win 21.3% fair 4.68
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 58.8% / 21.1% / 20.1%.
Expected Goals
VIL
2.04
—
1.11
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | fair 2.56 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 2-1 ESP | 9.9% | |
| VIL 1-1 ESP | 9.7% | |
| VIL 2-0 ESP | 8.9% | |
| VIL 1-0 ESP | 8.7% | |
| VIL 3-1 ESP | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).