VIL vs ESP
Villarreal (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VIL win 57.6% fair 1.74
Draw 22.0% fair 4.55
ESP win 20.5% fair 4.89
Expected Goals
VIL
1.94
—
1.02
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 1-1 ESP | 10.2% | |
| VIL 1-0 ESP | 10.0% | |
| VIL 2-1 ESP | 9.9% | |
| VIL 2-0 ESP | 9.7% | |
| VIL 3-1 ESP | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).