BET vs MLG
Real Betis (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
BET win 61.7% fair 1.62
Draw 20.5% fair 4.87
MLG win 17.8% fair 5.63
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 65.4% / 19.7% / 14.9%.
Expected Goals
BET
2.12
—
0.90
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.0% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| BET 2-0 MLG | 11.0% | |
| BET 1-0 MLG | 10.4% | |
| BET 2-1 MLG | 9.9% | |
| BET 1-1 MLG | 9.3% | |
| BET 3-0 MLG | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BET goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).