BET vs MLG
Real Betis (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BET win 65.1% fair 1.54
Draw 19.2% fair 5.20
MLG win 15.6% fair 6.40
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 68.3% / 18.5% / 13.3%.
Expected Goals
BET
2.24
—
0.87
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.8% | fair 2.51 |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| BET 2-0 MLG | 11.1% | |
| BET 1-0 MLG | 9.9% | |
| BET 2-1 MLG | 9.7% | |
| BET 1-1 MLG | 8.7% | |
| BET 3-0 MLG | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BET goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).