FCB vs ALA
Barcelona (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCB win 79.3% fair 1.26
Draw 12.0% fair 8.33
ALA win 8.7% fair 11.50
Expected Goals
FCB
3.23
—
0.89
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.9% | fair 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.1% | fair 4.53 |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 3-0 ALA | 9.1% | |
| FCB 2-0 ALA | 8.5% | |
| FCB 3-1 ALA | 8.1% | |
| FCB 2-1 ALA | 7.5% | |
| FCB 4-0 ALA | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 9.3 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).