FCB vs ALA
Barcelona (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 83%
Match Outcome
FCB win 71.6% fair 1.40
Draw 16.2% fair 6.18
ALA win 12.3% fair 8.15
Expected Goals
FCB
2.60
—
0.87
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.4% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.6% | fair 3.07 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 2-0 ALA | 10.5% | |
| FCB 2-1 ALA | 9.2% | |
| FCB 3-0 ALA | 9.1% | |
| FCB 1-0 ALA | 8.1% | |
| FCB 3-1 ALA | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).