ELC vs VAL
Elche (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ELC win 40.8% fair 2.45
Draw 24.8% fair 4.04
VAL win 34.4% fair 2.91
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.0% / 24.9% / 35.1%.
Expected Goals
ELC
1.49
—
1.38
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 VAL | 11.7% | |
| ELC 2-1 VAL | 8.7% | |
| ELC 1-0 VAL | 8.4% | |
| ELC 1-2 VAL | 8.0% | |
| ELC 0-1 VAL | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).