ELC vs VAL
Elche (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELC win 49.0% fair 2.04
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
VAL win 26.7% fair 3.74
Expected Goals
ELC
1.66
—
1.15
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 VAL | 11.5% | |
| ELC 1-0 VAL | 10.0% | |
| ELC 2-1 VAL | 9.5% | |
| ELC 2-0 VAL | 8.3% | |
| ELC 0-1 VAL | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).