GET vs SEV
Getafe (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
GET win 40.8% fair 2.45
Draw 27.3% fair 3.67
SEV win 31.9% fair 3.13
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.0% / 27.7% / 32.2%.
Expected Goals
GET
1.27
—
1.11
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.3% | fair 2.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
Most Likely Scores
| GET 1-1 SEV | 13.1% | |
| GET 1-0 SEV | 11.8% | |
| GET 0-1 SEV | 10.3% | |
| GET 0-0 SEV | 9.3% | |
| GET 2-1 SEV | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GET goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).