ATH vs RSO
Athletic Club (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATH win 42.8% fair 2.34
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
RSO win 33.8% fair 2.96
Expected Goals
ATH
1.69
—
1.49
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.4% | fair 2.61 |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 RSO | 10.5% | |
| ATH 2-1 RSO | 8.8% | |
| ATH 1-2 RSO | 7.8% | |
| ATH 1-0 RSO | 7.0% | |
| ATH 2-2 RSO | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).