ATH vs RSO
Athletic Club (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ATH win 39.7% fair 2.52
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
RSO win 36.6% fair 2.73
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.8% / 23.6% / 37.6%.
Expected Goals
ATH
1.59
—
1.56
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.9% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.1% | fair 2.56 |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 RSO | 10.6% | |
| ATH 2-1 RSO | 8.4% | |
| ATH 1-2 RSO | 8.3% | |
| ATH 1-0 RSO | 6.8% | |
| ATH 0-1 RSO | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).