ALA vs MLG
Alavés (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
ALA win 54.1% fair 1.85
Draw 23.2% fair 4.30
MLG win 22.6% fair 4.42
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 56.1% / 23.1% / 20.8%.
Expected Goals
ALA
1.80
—
1.00
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 MLG | 10.9% | |
| ALA 1-0 MLG | 10.9% | |
| ALA 2-1 MLG | 9.9% | |
| ALA 2-0 MLG | 9.8% | |
| ALA 0-1 MLG | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).