RSO vs LEV
Real Sociedad (home) vs Levante · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-25 · FT 2-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RSO win 51.9% fair 1.93
Draw 20.1% fair 4.98
LEV win 28.0% fair 3.57
Expected Goals
RSO
2.36
—
1.71
LEV
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): RSO ×1.100 (matched 9), LEV ×1.100 (matched 9). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.2% | fair 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.8% | fair 4.38 |
| Both teams to score | 74.1% | fair 1.35 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 2-1 LEV | 8.1% | |
| RSO 2-2 LEV | 6.9% | |
| RSO 1-1 LEV | 6.9% | |
| RSO 3-1 LEV | 6.4% | |
| RSO 1-2 LEV | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).