RSO vs LEV
Real Sociedad (home) vs Levante · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
RSO win 49.7% fair 2.01
Draw 22.6% fair 4.43
LEV win 27.7% fair 3.60
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.2% / 22.4% / 27.4%.
Expected Goals
RSO
1.90
—
1.35
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.0% | fair 2.70 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-1 LEV | 10.0% | |
| RSO 2-1 LEV | 9.4% | |
| RSO 1-0 LEV | 7.4% | |
| RSO 2-0 LEV | 7.0% | |
| RSO 1-2 LEV | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).