RAC vs ESP
Racing Santander (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
RAC win 38.0% fair 2.63
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
ESP win 37.1% fair 2.69
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.2% / 25.0% / 38.8%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.40
—
1.46
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-1 ESP | 11.7% | |
| RAC 1-2 ESP | 8.5% | |
| RAC 0-1 ESP | 8.4% | |
| RAC 2-1 ESP | 8.2% | |
| RAC 1-0 ESP | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).