FCB vs RMA
Barcelona (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 87%
Match Outcome
FCB win 52.5% fair 1.91
Draw 21.6% fair 4.62
RMA win 25.9% fair 3.86
Expected Goals
FCB
2.03
—
1.36
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.1% | fair 2.93 |
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 2-1 RMA | 9.4% | |
| FCB 1-1 RMA | 9.3% | |
| FCB 2-0 RMA | 6.9% | |
| FCB 1-0 RMA | 6.8% | |
| FCB 2-2 RMA | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).