FCB vs RMA
Barcelona (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 88% · pregame locked (10-25 · FT 1-2 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
FCB win 60.6% fair 1.65
Draw 17.7% fair 5.65
RMA win 21.7% fair 4.62
Expected Goals
FCB
2.77
—
1.62
RMA
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): FCB ×1.100 (matched 11), RMA ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 81.4% | fair 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 18.6% | fair 5.36 |
| Both teams to score | 75.2% | fair 1.33 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 2-1 RMA | 7.7% | |
| FCB 3-1 RMA | 7.1% | |
| FCB 2-2 RMA | 6.3% | |
| FCB 3-2 RMA | 5.8% | |
| FCB 1-1 RMA | 5.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).