CEL vs BET
Celta Vigo (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (10-25 · FT 0-0 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
CEL win 33.8% fair 2.96
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
BET win 40.9% fair 2.45
Expected Goals
CEL
1.26
—
1.47
BET
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): CEL ×0.900 (matched 10), BET ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.4% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 BET | 12.1% | |
| CEL 0-1 BET | 9.5% | |
| CEL 1-2 BET | 8.9% | |
| CEL 1-0 BET | 8.2% | |
| CEL 2-1 BET | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).