BET vs FCB
Real Betis (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 86% · pregame locked (10-17 · FT 2-5 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.95
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BET win 25.8% fair 3.88
Draw 20.1% fair 4.98
FCB win 54.2% fair 1.85
Expected Goals
BET
1.47
—
2.31
FCB
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): BET ×1.100 (matched 11), FCB ×0.952 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.8% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.2% | fair 3.67 |
| Both teams to score | 69.4% | fair 1.44 |
Most Likely Scores
| BET 1-2 FCB | 8.9% | |
| BET 1-1 FCB | 7.8% | |
| BET 1-3 FCB | 6.9% | |
| BET 2-2 FCB | 6.6% | |
| BET 0-2 FCB | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BET goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).