ESP vs ATM
Espanyol (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (10-17 · FT 0-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.01 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ESP win 29.9% fair 3.34
Draw 25.1% fair 3.98
ATM win 45.0% fair 2.22
Expected Goals
ESP
1.15
—
1.55
ATM
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ESP ×1.009 (matched 9), ATM ×0.900 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 ATM | 12.0% | |
| ESP 0-1 ATM | 10.4% | |
| ESP 1-2 ATM | 9.3% | |
| ESP 0-2 ATM | 8.1% | |
| ESP 1-0 ATM | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).