ESP vs ATM
Espanyol (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
ESP win 32.0% fair 3.13
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
ATM win 43.1% fair 2.32
Expected Goals
ESP
1.23
—
1.55
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 ATM | 11.8% | |
| ESP 0-1 ATM | 9.6% | |
| ESP 1-2 ATM | 9.2% | |
| ESP 1-0 ATM | 7.6% | |
| ESP 0-2 ATM | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).