RMA vs SEV
Real Madrid (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 84% · pregame locked (10-18 · FT 4-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RMA win 73.0% fair 1.37
Draw 15.4% fair 6.47
SEV win 11.6% fair 8.62
Expected Goals
RMA
2.70
—
0.88
SEV
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): RMA ×1.100 (matched 11), SEV ×0.902 (matched 9). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.3% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.7% | fair 3.26 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-0 SEV | 10.2% | |
| RMA 3-0 SEV | 9.2% | |
| RMA 2-1 SEV | 8.9% | |
| RMA 3-1 SEV | 8.0% | |
| RMA 1-0 SEV | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).