OSA vs RAC
Osasuna (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
OSA win 50.6% fair 1.98
Draw 24.1% fair 4.16
RAC win 25.3% fair 3.95
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.6% / 24.1% / 24.3%.
Expected Goals
OSA
1.69
—
1.08
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.5% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 RAC | 11.4% | |
| OSA 1-0 RAC | 10.5% | |
| OSA 2-1 RAC | 9.7% | |
| OSA 2-0 RAC | 8.9% | |
| OSA 0-1 RAC | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).