VIL vs ELC
Villarreal (home) vs Elche · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-17 · FT 0-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.03 / ×1.00
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
VIL win 61.2% fair 1.63
Draw 19.3% fair 5.17
ELC win 19.5% fair 5.13
Expected Goals
VIL
2.36
—
1.21
ELC
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): VIL ×1.031 (matched 10), ELC ×0.999 (matched 9). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.2% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.8% | fair 3.24 |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 2-1 ELC | 9.5% | |
| VIL 1-1 ELC | 8.0% | |
| VIL 2-0 ELC | 7.9% | |
| VIL 3-1 ELC | 7.5% | |
| VIL 1-0 ELC | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).