VIL vs ELC
Villarreal (home) vs Elche · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
VIL win 62.3% fair 1.60
Draw 19.1% fair 5.23
ELC win 18.6% fair 5.39
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 64.6% / 18.4% / 17.0%.
Expected Goals
VIL
2.38
—
1.15
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.5% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.5% | fair 3.17 |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 2-1 ELC | 9.5% | |
| VIL 2-0 ELC | 8.3% | |
| VIL 1-1 ELC | 8.0% | |
| VIL 3-1 ELC | 7.6% | |
| VIL 1-0 ELC | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).