VAL vs ATH
Valencia (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-17 · FT 0-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
VAL win 39.8% fair 2.51
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
ATH win 35.3% fair 2.83
Expected Goals
VAL
1.46
—
1.39
ATH
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): VAL ×1.100 (matched 11), ATH ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 ATH | 11.7% | |
| VAL 2-1 ATH | 8.6% | |
| VAL 1-0 ATH | 8.4% | |
| VAL 1-2 ATH | 8.2% | |
| VAL 0-1 ATH | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).