VAL vs ATH
Valencia (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
VAL win 46.4% fair 2.15
Draw 25.1% fair 3.98
ATH win 28.5% fair 3.51
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.5% / 25.3% / 28.2%.
Expected Goals
VAL
1.54
—
1.15
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 ATH | 12.0% | |
| VAL 1-0 ATH | 10.5% | |
| VAL 2-1 ATH | 9.3% | |
| VAL 2-0 ATH | 8.1% | |
| VAL 0-1 ATH | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).