CEL vs ALA
Celta Vigo (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
CEL win 46.6% fair 2.15
Draw 25.0% fair 3.99
ALA win 28.4% fair 3.52
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.6% / 25.2% / 28.2%.
Expected Goals
CEL
1.55
—
1.15
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 ALA | 12.0% | |
| CEL 1-0 ALA | 10.4% | |
| CEL 2-1 ALA | 9.3% | |
| CEL 2-0 ALA | 8.1% | |
| CEL 0-1 ALA | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).