CEL vs ALA
Celta Vigo (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-18 · FT 2-1 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
CEL win 41.1% fair 2.43
Draw 26.8% fair 3.74
ALA win 32.1% fair 3.11
Expected Goals
CEL
1.32
—
1.15
ALA
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): CEL ×0.900 (matched 10), ALA ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 ALA | 12.8% | |
| CEL 1-0 ALA | 11.2% | |
| CEL 0-1 ALA | 9.8% | |
| CEL 0-0 ALA | 8.5% | |
| CEL 2-1 ALA | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).