GET vs RAY
Getafe (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
GET win 38.6% fair 2.59
Draw 29.9% fair 3.34
RAY win 31.5% fair 3.18
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.6% / 30.7% / 31.7%.
Expected Goals
GET
1.06
—
0.95
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.4% | fair 3.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 67.6% | fair 1.48 |
| Both teams to score | 39.9% | fair 2.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| GET 1-0 RAY | 14.3% | |
| GET 1-1 RAY | 13.5% | |
| GET 0-0 RAY | 13.5% | |
| GET 0-1 RAY | 12.8% | |
| GET 2-0 RAY | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GET goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).