GET vs RAY
Getafe (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-19 · FT 1-1 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
GET win 33.8% fair 2.96
Draw 29.5% fair 3.39
RAY win 36.7% fair 2.73
Expected Goals
GET
0.98
—
1.08
RAY
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): GET ×0.900 (matched 11), RAY ×1.100 (matched 8). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.2% | fair 2.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 65.8% | fair 1.52 |
| Both teams to score | 41.5% | fair 2.41 |
Most Likely Scores
| GET 0-1 RAY | 13.7% | |
| GET 1-1 RAY | 13.5% | |
| GET 0-0 RAY | 12.6% | |
| GET 1-0 RAY | 12.4% | |
| GET 0-2 RAY | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.7 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GET goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).