MLG vs RSO
Málaga (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
MLG win 34.2% fair 2.92
Draw 23.4% fair 4.26
RSO win 42.3% fair 2.36
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.3% / 23.3% / 45.4%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.41
—
1.74
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.9% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.1% | fair 2.56 |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 RSO | 10.5% | |
| MLG 1-2 RSO | 9.1% | |
| MLG 0-1 RSO | 7.5% | |
| MLG 2-1 RSO | 7.4% | |
| MLG 0-2 RSO | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).