DEP vs LEV
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Levante · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
DEP win 39.8% fair 2.51
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
LEV win 35.2% fair 2.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.3% / 25.2% / 36.5%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.43
—
1.39
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.6% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 LEV | 11.9% | |
| DEP 1-0 LEV | 8.6% | |
| DEP 2-1 LEV | 8.5% | |
| DEP 0-1 LEV | 8.3% | |
| DEP 1-2 LEV | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).