DEP vs LEV
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Levante · model confidence 73% · pregame locked (10-16 · FT 1-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
DEP win 42.1% fair 2.37
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
LEV win 33.9% fair 2.95
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.4% / 23.9% / 34.7%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.61
—
1.46
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 LEV | 10.9% | |
| DEP 2-1 LEV | 8.8% | |
| DEP 1-2 LEV | 8.0% | |
| DEP 1-0 LEV | 7.5% | |
| DEP 0-1 LEV | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).